Sunday, September 17, 2017

Air bound Uncertainties and Piling up contingencies


Flight names are Indigo 6E 568 and Indigo 6E 375. Engines were ready to take me off from Vadodara to Mumbai and from Mumbai to Coimbatore. Flight was purely booked for personal purposes, of course. The schedule of the flight was at 8am for the first and 12pm for the second. But then for a flight at 8am, I started from the hotel at 6am. I reached the airport at 6.30am. Once I reached I had to go through a 15 min procedure of checking into the airports via protection checkpoints. Fellas in Military suits guarded the Airport with huge guns in their arms. They instructed me to show the ticket and also the photo ID. The fellas looked into the ID card and then stared at me like "Is it him, btw?". Obviously, those fellas did not laugh out loud but then let me in. Then my baggage had to go through some checks. Identification was done on my baggage and then I need to move to the counter to Check in. Went to the Indigo counter and again had to show the ticket and ID proof. By the time, I was used to the procedure. 

After my baggage was taken in and Window seat was booked, I got the boarding pass as well and was extremely happy to move forward after having got a window seat. Then again as I went into the airport, guess what, again there was a Checkpoint. Now I needed to take out all that I had in my pocket and in my bag. I took out my laptop and then my wallet and cell phones and kept it into a tray. The tray and the backpack went into the scanner. While that was getting scanned, Military suited officers did some checking. They touched here and there in my pockets (Well, not more than that). Scanned with some device in hand and then told me to collect the bag. Once that was done, now that was waiting time. Went to the Gate mentioned in the Boarding pass and there were so many people, who were again waiting for the flight timing to arrive.

Now coming to the Supply chain part of it.

I had to wait for 1hr for boarding into my first flight. During the time of boarding, I was just checking why there is so much of time inventory given for each of the flights.
Why do they have so much waiting time? Why should I wait for the other passengers to arrive?
What if Air travel is like Rail travel?
25mins is the last minute boarding time for any passenger. So there is inventory of 25 mins there. Ok for boarding everybody into the plane it takes some time of course. Then something else struck in my mind that, if the flight is going to be on the air for minimum 1hr. What would be hours for which it would be carrying fuel? If there is extra inventory of Fuel there, am I really paying for it? Is that really required?

Need to find answers for these questions but the take is on the question of how reliable the machine is. The same is the case with many machines used in the factory as well. We always have an uncertain zone in which anything can happen. Bigger question is are companies willing to invest in those contingencies as well. What if the contingencies are never used even once? Opportunity cost? Do they track whether these get used or not? Ultimately it is cost for which the customer is not willing to pay.

Ok. Now after boarding, there are many uncertainties that are actually associated with Air travel. One is Air traffic.

Second flight that I boarded, did not start on time. Though there are advanced equipments to take care of communication between flights and ensure that the scheduled times are adhered to, there was delay in taking off the flight. The flight was delayed by 15 mins. How does it affect the other planes and what is the impact on the overall schedules of the flights in the day? Overall the question is how is Air traffic related to the schedule delays? How is it optimized?

Do they have a heuristic approach towards Air traffic or do they have a predictable system which can predict according to weather patterns, the huge amount of experience that each flight carrier has each day? If at all, we try to have such a system, can we predict exactly what would happen if a flight is delayed by 15 mins? What would be the butterfly effect on various cost and other business parameters?

I did not get the answer for these yet but then it is good to be curious and have the thought process running always. We will find the chain getting effective with these questions.

Bigger question : Is Risk modelling the ultimate strength of Supply chain?  The more and more back ups and readiness that you have to accommodate uncertainties. Is that the aim of the supply chain? On what basis could you measure how effective the Supply chain really? Contingencies for uncertainties at any level at very low cost? Very interesting take indeed.

Hmmm. Think.

-Satz

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